Time series, sets of sequences in chronological order, are essential data in statistical research with many forecasting applications. Although recent performance in many Transformer-based models has been noticeable, long multi-horizon time series forecasting remains a very challenging task. Going beyond transformers in sequence translation and transduction research, we observe the effects of down-and-up samplings that can nudge temporal saliency patterns to emerge in time sequences. Motivated by the mentioned observation, in this paper, we propose a novel architecture, Temporal Saliency Detection (TSD), on top of the attention mechanism and apply it to multi-horizon time series prediction. We renovate the traditional encoder-decoder architecture by making as a series of deep convolutional blocks to work in tandem with the multi-head self-attention. The proposed TSD approach facilitates the multiresolution of saliency patterns upon condensed multi-heads, thus progressively enhancing complex time series forecasting. Experimental results illustrate that our proposed approach has significantly outperformed existing state-of-the-art methods across multiple standard benchmark datasets in many far-horizon forecasting settings. Overall, TSD achieves 31% and 46% relative improvement over the current state-of-the-art models in multivariate and univariate time series forecasting scenarios on standard benchmarks. The Git repository is available at https://github.com/duongtrung/time-series-temporal-saliency-patterns.
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异步时间序列是一个多元时间序列,在该时间序列中,所有通道都被观察到异步独立的,使得时间序列在对齐时极为稀疏。我们经常在具有复杂的观察过程(例如医疗保健,气候科学和天文学)的应用中观察到这种影响,仅举几例。由于异步性质,它们对深度学习体系结构构成了重大挑战,假定给他们的时间序列定期采样,完全观察并与时间对齐。本文提出了一个新颖的框架,我们称深卷积集功能(DCSF),该功能高度可扩展且有效,对于异步时间序列分类任务。随着深度学习体系结构的最新进展,我们引入了一个模型,该模型不变了,在此订单中呈现了时间序列的频道。我们探索卷积神经网络,该网络对定期采样和完全观察到的时间序列的紧密相关的问题分类进行了很好的研究,以编码设置元素。我们评估DCSF的ASTS分类和在线(每个时间点)ASTS分类。我们在多个现实世界和合成数据集上进行的广泛实验验证了建议的模型在准确性和运行时间方面的表现优于一系列最新模型。
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学习复杂的时间序列预测模型通常需要大量数据,因为每个任务/数据集都会从头开始训练每个模型。利用类似数据集利用学习经验是一种公认​​的技术,用于分类问题,称为几个射击分类。但是,现有方法不能应用于预测时间序列,因为i)多元时间序列数据集具有不同的渠道,ii)预测与分类主要不同。在本文中,我们首次使用异质通道对时间序列的几个预测进行正式的问题。扩展了有关矢量数据中异质属性的最新工作,我们开发了一个由置换不变的深set块组成的模型,该模型结合了时间嵌入。我们组装了40个多元时间序列数据集的第一个元数据集,并通过实验显示我们的模型提供了一个良好的概括,优于从更简单的场景中延续的基线,这些基线要么无法跨任务学习或错过时间信息。
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时间序列数据在研究以及各种工业应用中无处不在。有效地分析可用的历史数据并提供对未来的见解,使我们能够做出有效的决策。最近的研究见证了基于变压器的架构的出色表现,尤其是在《远距离时间序列》的政权预测中。但是,稀疏变压器体系结构的当前状态无法将其简化和上取样过程磨损,无法以与输入相似的分辨率产生输出。我们提出了基于新颖的Y形编码器架构的Yformer模型,该架构(1)在U-NET启发的体系结构中使用从缩小的编码层到相应的UPSMPLED DEXODER层的直接连接,(2)组合了降尺度/降压/以稀疏的注意来提高采样,以捕获远距离效应,(3)通过添加辅助重建损失来稳定编码器堆栈。已经在四个基准数据集上使用相关基线进行了广泛的实验,与单变量和多元设置的艺术现状相比,MAE的平均改善为19.82,18.41百分比和13.62,11.85百分比MAE。
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Machine learning models are typically evaluated by computing similarity with reference annotations and trained by maximizing similarity with such. Especially in the bio-medical domain, annotations are subjective and suffer from low inter- and intra-rater reliability. Since annotations only reflect the annotation entity's interpretation of the real world, this can lead to sub-optimal predictions even though the model achieves high similarity scores. Here, the theoretical concept of Peak Ground Truth (PGT) is introduced. PGT marks the point beyond which an increase in similarity with the reference annotation stops translating to better Real World Model Performance (RWMP). Additionally, a quantitative technique to approximate PGT by computing inter- and intra-rater reliability is proposed. Finally, three categories of PGT-aware strategies to evaluate and improve model performance are reviewed.
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Quaternion valued neural networks experienced rising popularity and interest from researchers in the last years, whereby the derivatives with respect to quaternions needed for optimization are calculated as the sum of the partial derivatives with respect to the real and imaginary parts. However, we can show that product- and chain-rule does not hold with this approach. We solve this by employing the GHRCalculus and derive quaternion backpropagation based on this. Furthermore, we experimentally prove the functionality of the derived quaternion backpropagation.
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Neuromorphic systems require user-friendly software to support the design and optimization of experiments. In this work, we address this need by presenting our development of a machine learning-based modeling framework for the BrainScaleS-2 neuromorphic system. This work represents an improvement over previous efforts, which either focused on the matrix-multiplication mode of BrainScaleS-2 or lacked full automation. Our framework, called hxtorch.snn, enables the hardware-in-the-loop training of spiking neural networks within PyTorch, including support for auto differentiation in a fully-automated hardware experiment workflow. In addition, hxtorch.snn facilitates seamless transitions between emulating on hardware and simulating in software. We demonstrate the capabilities of hxtorch.snn on a classification task using the Yin-Yang dataset employing a gradient-based approach with surrogate gradients and densely sampled membrane observations from the BrainScaleS-2 hardware system.
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Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent chronic joint disease worldwide, where knee OA takes more than 80% of commonly affected joints. Knee OA is not a curable disease yet, and it affects large columns of patients, making it costly to patients and healthcare systems. Etiology, diagnosis, and treatment of knee OA might be argued by variability in its clinical and physical manifestations. Although knee OA carries a list of well-known terminology aiming to standardize the nomenclature of the diagnosis, prognosis, treatment, and clinical outcomes of the chronic joint disease, in practice there is a wide range of terminology associated with knee OA across different data sources, including but not limited to biomedical literature, clinical notes, healthcare literacy, and health-related social media. Among these data sources, the scientific articles published in the biomedical literature usually make a principled pipeline to study disease. Rapid yet, accurate text mining on large-scale scientific literature may discover novel knowledge and terminology to better understand knee OA and to improve the quality of knee OA diagnosis, prevention, and treatment. The present works aim to utilize artificial neural network strategies to automatically extract vocabularies associated with knee OA diseases. Our finding indicates the feasibility of developing word embedding neural networks for autonomous keyword extraction and abstraction of knee OA.
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Data-centric artificial intelligence (data-centric AI) represents an emerging paradigm emphasizing that the systematic design and engineering of data is essential for building effective and efficient AI-based systems. The objective of this article is to introduce practitioners and researchers from the field of Information Systems (IS) to data-centric AI. We define relevant terms, provide key characteristics to contrast the data-centric paradigm to the model-centric one, and introduce a framework for data-centric AI. We distinguish data-centric AI from related concepts and discuss its longer-term implications for the IS community.
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Many real-world reinforcement learning tasks require control of complex dynamical systems that involve both costly data acquisition processes and large state spaces. In cases where the transition dynamics can be readily evaluated at specified states (e.g., via a simulator), agents can operate in what is often referred to as planning with a \emph{generative model}. We propose the AE-LSVI algorithm for best-policy identification, a novel variant of the kernelized least-squares value iteration (LSVI) algorithm that combines optimism with pessimism for active exploration (AE). AE-LSVI provably identifies a near-optimal policy \emph{uniformly} over an entire state space and achieves polynomial sample complexity guarantees that are independent of the number of states. When specialized to the recently introduced offline contextual Bayesian optimization setting, our algorithm achieves improved sample complexity bounds. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AE-LSVI outperforms other RL algorithms in a variety of environments when robustness to the initial state is required.
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